“I think people will be a little more cautious, and I expect that they will be less likely to vote for change,” says Paul Schonenberg, the chairman of the American Chamber of Business for Luxembourg (AmCham), of June’s parliamentary elections. “The government of Jean-Claude Juncker is not being held responsible for the crisis, and he will be viewed as being a safe pair of experienced hands to guide us through these difficult times.” In that regard, Schonenberg expects Juncker and the CSV party to benefit from the timing of the election. “This year is going to be more difficult economically than 2008. If the election were next year, there might have been a change in the sentiment of the voters.” Equally interesting, in his view, is what will happen to a party like Déi Gréng at the polls. “Although I think many people are supportive of environmental initiatives, it will be interesting to see if that will be a higher priority than bread and butter issues like maintaining their employment and standard of living.” Although he recognises that the policies of the Green party can bring good, he feels they, and other marginal parties, are not necessarily strong supporters of economic prosperity. “They could be viewed as a ‘luxury’ party. Some people might think that when the country is wealthy enough they can afford to have a strong ecological party.”

Schonenberg thinks that immigration is one major policy issue that could be pushed to the forefront of the election agenda. “How Luxembourg deals with immigration and the integration of foreigners into Luxembourg society is a core issue that can be played out in a variety of different ways.” One way it will not play out, he says, is that a party from either extreme of the political spectrum will take advantage of the situation and pounce on any sort of a protectionist bandwagon. “There are still sufficient jobs available in Luxembourg so that those with qualifications, or who are prepared to get those qualifications, can find work. In addition, the social security safety net here takes off the extra edge.” There would be little support here, for example, for the sort of strikes and protests against foreign workers that have been witnessed in the UK, says the AmCham chairman. Indeed, Schonenberg reiterates the view that there is still a void of talent in some areas in Luxembourg. “The feedback we are getting is that there are still a high number of applications for work permits from companies who have quite legitimately gone to search for talent outside.”

However, Schonenberg and his colleagues at AmCham do have some concerns they would like to see addressed by the next government when it announces its programme for the next five years. “We are concerned about Luxembourg’s competitiveness as a place for international business to locate. At the executive level there are not enough people to fill the positions available, while at entry level there are more people than there are jobs. And the cost of hiring for those jobs is higher than in other locations that also have infrastructure and good quality of life.”Another long-range challenge Schonenberg would like to see taken up is more of a commitment to life-long learning. “What’s lacking is an effective mechanism that provides more opportunities for the re-skilling and upward mobility of people in full-time employment.”

June’s election will be the fourth that Schonenberg has observed in Luxembourg. He has noticed that local politicians have started to become much more international in their outlook. But he still does not believe they are doing enough to address the needs of the international community in Luxembourg, for example on topics such as pensions. He would like to see the mandatory retirement age raised to allow people to work beyond 65, if they are still fit and willing, to accommodate those ex-pats who have started their careers in Luxembourg later in life. Nevertheless, Schonenberg seems to have a lot of respect for a number of local politicians, and says that many of them could be inter-changeable between the main parties. “If you are talking about Paul Helminger, Jeannot Krecké or Luc Frieden, I don’t see large philosophical differences between them. I see smart, pragmatic politicians doing what’s right for the country.”